Mega Lotto 6/45 at ₱25 a play: match odds, jackpot math and what full coverage would cost
Published — UTC
Short answer: Mega Lotto 6/45 is drawn on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, and PCSO’s game page says the jackpot requires matching all six numbers. The official excerpt puts the price at ₱25.00 per play per draw. A play is one combination of six numbers from 1 to 45. Our calculation: the jackpot chance for one play is 1 in 8,145,060, while matching at least three of the six numbers happens about once in 42 plays. The current prize table and jackpot amount are not verified in this article, because PCSO’s own page refused our connection.
This guide does the arithmetic that the game rules imply: how many combinations exist, how often each match count appears, what a year of one fixed play means, and what covering every combination would cost. None of these figures predicts a draw. Each draw is separate, and past results do not change the next one.
The rule and the price, as the official pages state them
Two PCSO game-page excerpts were checked from a search result. The first says players get three chances a week, every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, and that to win the jackpot you must match all six numbers. The second says Mega Lotto 6/45 costs ₱25.00 each per play per draw. A news report from GMA News said the price of the main lotto games rose from ₱20 to ₱25 from 1 February 2026. We have treated that report as news, not as an official figure.
The PCSO pages themselves returned an access-denied response when we tried to open them from our server. That means we did not read the full prize table, the current jackpot minimum or any rule change after the excerpts were indexed. Check the PCSO page before you buy.
The combinations behind one ₱25 play
Choosing six numbers from 45 gives C(45,6) = 8,145,060 possible combinations. Every combination has the same chance, whether you choose the numbers yourself or use Lucky Pick. The table counts how many combinations match each number of drawn numbers. Its odds are our calculation.
| Numbers matched | Combinations that match | Odds per play | Probability per play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 (jackpot) | 1 | 1 in 8,145,060 | 0.0000123% |
| 5 | 234 | 1 in 34,807.95 | 0.002873% |
| 4 | 11,115 | 1 in 732.80 | 0.1365% |
| 3 | 182,780 | 1 in 44.56 | 2.244% |
| At least 3 | 194,130 | 1 in 41.96 | 2.383% |
The jackpot count is 1 because only one set of six numbers wins it. The five-match count is 6 × 39 = 234: choose which of your six numbers is missing, then one of the 39 numbers you did not pick. The same logic gives the other rows.
What 1,000 plays would show on average
Expected values are long-run averages, not promises. The chart below turns the table into hits per 1,000 single plays. Three matches happen about 22 times per 1,000 plays on average, while a jackpot appears about once in 8,000 plays. Prize amounts are not shown, because we could not verify the current prize table.
One fixed combination over a year
Three draws a week make 156 draws in a year, if no draw is cancelled. Playing one fixed combination once per draw costs ₱25 × 156 = ₱3,900 a year, and the chance of matching all six numbers in at least one of those draws is about 1 in 52,212. Matching at least three numbers at least once is far more common. Over 156 draws, the average number of plays with three or more matches is about 3.7, and the chance of at least one such play is about 97.7%.
Those two results are the same arithmetic seen from two sides. The 3-match tier is frequent; the jackpot is not. Whether a 3-match is worth anything depends on a prize table we have not verified, so we do not put a peso value on it here.
What full coverage would cost
Covering every combination guarantees the jackpot for one draw, but only by buying all 8,145,060 plays. At ₱25 each that is ₱203,626,500 for a single draw. At the old ₱20 price the same coverage would have cost ₱162,901,200, so the price rise adds 25% to the cost of coverage.
Whether coverage pays depends on the jackpot amount, the number of other winners who share a pool and the prize rules for lower tiers. We have not modelled those. The figure shows the cost of buying the full set, not the return on it.
What the odds do not tell you
- Lucky Pick and your own choice have the same odds. A combination of six numbers is equally likely whichever way you picked it. Choosing popular numbers changes how many winners you might share a prize with, not your chance to match.
- A long run without a win does not make the next draw more likely. Draws are treated as independent, so a dry spell is not a signal.
- Budget per draw, not per hope. One fixed play per draw costs ₱3,900 a year at ₱25. Decide the limit before the draw, not after a near miss.
Verified, calculated and not verified
Verified from PCSO excerpts: the three weekly draw days, the rule that the jackpot needs all six numbers, and the ₱25.00 price per play per draw. Reported by news: the price rise from ₱20 to ₱25 from 1 February 2026. Our calculation: every combination count, probability, expected hit count, the 156-draw year and the coverage cost. The 156-draw figure assumes no cancelled draws. Not verified: the current prize table, the jackpot minimum, the prize for each lower tier and any rule change after the excerpts we read.
Lottery is for adults, and the official rules and results are the only reliable source for prize amounts. If gambling is starting to cost more than you can afford, stop and get help. In the Philippines, gaming is for adults aged 21 and over.
Sources (checked 17 October 2026): PCSO, Mega Lotto 6/45 game page (search excerpt: three draws per week, jackpot rule; full page not reachable from our server); PCSO, Mega Lotto 6/45 game page (search excerpt: ₱25.00 per play per draw); GMA News, report on lotto ticket prices rising to ₱25 from 1 February; PAGCOR, responsible gaming guidance. All probabilities, counts and peso totals are calculations by bigbunny from the rule above.